Ramblings of a Graduate Student

The armada spent the night (1 June – 2 June) in Salina, KS.  As previously mentioned, the armada decided not to target the southern Texas panhandle on 2 June due to the long drive that would be necessary.  At the morning briefing, the armada decided that instead of hoping for something to develop nearby, they would head west on I70 and position themselves for Thursday’s opportunities.   While enroute to their hotel, Mother Nature decided to show her cruel side.  Several tornadoes were reported in the Dodge City, KS area – and would have been reachable by the armada.

For the bulk of the project, the armada has held operations because of an inherent fear that if they didn’t deploy on those days, a tornado would happen and they’d miss what might be their only shot to collect data on a tornado.  I find it ironic that on the first marginal day they do not play, a tornado occurs in a region they could have targeted.  Cue Alanis Morissette…

Today the armada is staying put.  They are conducting tests and reviews, as well as preparing for yet another marginal deployment tomorrow.

The armada spent the night in Omaha (ironically, this is the location of the American Meteorological Society’s [AMS] Weather and Forecasting [WAF] conference that is  currently ongoing).  At the morning briefing, the armada decided not to target thunderstorms in northern Missouri or southern Iowa for fear that trees and hills would limit the opportunity to collect data.  The armada also decided that it did not want to target thunderstorms developing in Kansas, along the stalled front, because the vertical wind shear was weak and the fear was storms would be multi-cellular and non-tornadic.

Another concern the armada had was the marginal setup forecast for today is being followed by another marginal setup (albeit in Texas panhandle and western Oklahoma) the following day.  If the armada chased a storm too far east today, there would be no chance they could recover and play a storm in the Texas panhandle tomorrow.  If the armada compensated too far west today, thinking tomorrow would be the better day, they would not be able to catch any storm that developed to their east.

The armada’s plan was to target thunderstorms that might develop in central Nebraska, behind the front, where the wind shear was forecast to be a little bit better than farther south.  The potential problem with this strategy was the possibility that thunderstorms would never develop.  With this said, the armada went to York, NE and waited for the atmosphere to show her hand.  When it did, (thunderstorms developed along the front and began moving north) the armada was on the wrong side of the storms.  Furthermore, the thunderstorms never really had the characteristics of producing a tornado that would allow for data to be collected.   Since the armada’s hotel was south of the storms, they went ahead and attempted to target one of the updrafts within the collection of updrafts, only to discover that deploying on this was too hard to do safely.  Shortly after the failed deployment, the armada called it quite early and headed to the hotel.  (Ironically, after the armada commited south, a very nice thunderstorm developed near North Platte, NE that moved very slowly and exhibited excellent rotation….*d’oh!*)

The principle investigators (PIs) held a 9:30PM CDT meeting this evening to discuss the feasability of waking up very early and driving toward Childress, TX.  It was decided this would be too risky and they would hope something would happen in south-central Kansas.  If this does not appear likely, the armada will use tomorrow as a travel day to a destination that allows them to target storms on Thursday.

We’ll see what happens tomorow morning during the conference call!