Comments on: Day 65: Upcoming Soaker http://www.patricktmarsh.com/2010/03/day-65-upcoming-soaker/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=day-65-upcoming-soaker Thu, 09 Sep 2010 14:40:36 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: pmarsh http://www.patricktmarsh.com/2010/03/day-65-upcoming-soaker/comment-page-1/#comment-210 pmarsh Mon, 08 Mar 2010 03:30:33 +0000 http://www.patricktmarsh.com/?p=969#comment-210 If you have a negatively tilted trough, you tend to have all the things you mentioned, and as well as strongly backed winds a loft. You don't necessarily want winds out of the south at 500mb for a big severe weather event (although it is possible). The key is that all of these things have to be in balance for a severe weather outbreak to occur. If you have a weak cap, and bring a negatively tilted trough into the area, you'll end up with widespread heavy rain, but not a severe event. You need to balance the strength of the upper-level forcing with the strength of the cap, speed of moisture advection, temperature modification, etc. If you have a negatively tilted trough, you tend to have all the things you mentioned, and as well as strongly backed winds a loft. You don’t necessarily want winds out of the south at 500mb for a big severe weather event (although it is possible).

The key is that all of these things have to be in balance for a severe weather outbreak to occur. If you have a weak cap, and bring a negatively tilted trough into the area, you’ll end up with widespread heavy rain, but not a severe event. You need to balance the strength of the upper-level forcing with the strength of the cap, speed of moisture advection, temperature modification, etc.

]]> By: Greg Blumberg http://www.patricktmarsh.com/2010/03/day-65-upcoming-soaker/comment-page-1/#comment-209 Greg Blumberg Sun, 07 Mar 2010 08:46:58 +0000 http://www.patricktmarsh.com/?p=969#comment-209 I thought negatively tilted troughs were something we did want for severe weather, as they would be associated with stronger lows, leading to rapid moisture advection from the south, backed surface winds...am I missing something here in my knowledge? I thought negatively tilted troughs were something we did want for severe weather, as they would be associated with stronger lows, leading to rapid moisture advection from the south, backed surface winds…am I missing something here in my knowledge?

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