Ramblings of a Graduate Student

Tonight I continue discussing the potential weekend storm, in particular the possibility of winter weather.  The image above is the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center’s probability of a point exceeding 4″ of snow accumulation between 7 PM CDT Friday and 7 PM CDT Saturday.  Notice how a large potion of Oklahoma is contoured within  the 10% threshold and areas from Oklahoma City northeast along I44 and west back to I35 are contoured in the 40% threshold with areas in northeast Oklahoma along the Kansas border contoured in the 70% threshold!

Below is the same kind of graphic, for the same time period, only instead of the probability of a point exceeding 4″ of snow accumulation, this is for 8″ of snow.  Again, northeast Oklahoma is the area targeted.

This time the plot below is for 12″ snow accumulation.  While the probabilities are low, areas are still being highlighted.

Now, without going into all the details of the the data I’ve examined up to now, I am beginning to think this storm won’t be as big of a deal as I was thinking 2 days ago.  The reason for this is that the storm is moving relatively quickly, moisture isn’t all that great, and most of the precipitation in the last few model runs has been tied to the frontal zone – which moves fairly quickly through Oklahoma.  Based on this, I think the graphics posted above are a bit optimistic regarding Oklahoma’s snow chances.  However, the event is still 2-3 days into the future, so a lot can change between now and then.