Day 98: The Week Ahead

Posted by pmarsh on 8 Apr 2010 | 0 comments

As promised last night, here is a look at next week.  Each image below comes from this morning’s 12 UTC (7 AM CDT) run of the Global Forecast System (GFS) model.  Each image is of 500 millibar heights and wind speeds valid at 00 UTC (7 PM CDT the day before) beginning with 00 UTC Saturday / 7 PM CDT Friday and endingg 00 UTC Sunday / 7 PM CDT Saturday of the following week.

One of the reason meteorologists look at 500 millibars is because this is roughly the middle of the troposphere and is a good place to identify troughs, which are often responsible for bringing precipitation and cold air to areas, and ridges, which are often responsible for clear skies and warm temperatures.  In the plots below, troughs are indicated by dashed lines and ridges are indicated by zigzag lines.

Above is valid at 00 UTC Saturday / 7 PM CDT Friday.

Above is valid at 00 UTC Sunday / 7 PM CDT Saturday.

Above is valid at 00 UTC Monday / 7 PM CDT Sunday.

Above is valid at 00 UTC Tuesday / 7 PM CDT Monday.

Above is valid at 00 UTC Wednesday / 7 PM CDT Tuesday.

Above is valid at 00 UTC Thursday / 7 PM CDT Wednesday.

Above is valid at 00 UTC Friday / 7 PM CDT Thursday.

Above is valid at 00 UTC Saturday / 7 PM CDT Friday.

Above is valid at 00 UTC Sunday / 7 PM CDT Saturday.

The main thing to take away from this model base forecast is that during the next seven days, there aren’t really any troughs that move through the middle part of the country.  As they move onshore in California, they tend to go up into Canada (around the ridge) and then back down into the northeast.  By not moving through the central of the United States, this will help to limit the severe weather threat here for the next week.  However, the current track would tend to favor places like eastern New Mexico, eastern Colorado, and far western Nebraska for severe weather (assuming moisture can make it up there).  Although my research is on severe thunderstorms, I’m glad to see that there aren’t any major severe weather outbreaks in the near future.  This will hopefully give me time to continue to prepare for VORTEX II.  Less than a month away now!  YIKES!!!!

Please remember this is a single model forecast.  Going back to this post, it is wise to keep in mind that models are only guidance and can be wrong!  Also, check your local National Weather Service office for more specific forecasts for your location!