Day 145: Nearing Hurricane Season
Today was day 25 of VORTEX II and featured a drive south from Ogallala, NE to east central Colorado and west central Kansas. It was a frustrating chase with a lot of driving back and forth. In fact, one of the vehicles passed through the town of Sharon Springs, KS at least 6 times before I stopped counting. At the end of the day, a successful deployment was achieved on the Kansas, Colorado border and lasted for about an hour. I am looking forward to learning more about the awesome dataset that was collected.
Normally, I would make this feat the subject of my blog post, but we’re nearing the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and thought I’d discuss the anomalous happenings of the coast of the southeast.
Hurricane Season officially runs from 1 June through 30 November in the Atlantic Ocean and from 15 May through 30 November in the eastern Pacific Ocean. In other words, one hurricane season is already underway and the other is just beginning. The image above is a forecast of the potential for tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean. I’m sure I’ll be posting this image a lot in the coming months, especially since all indications are that this year’s Atlantic hurricane season could be a bad one.
The yellow circle above indicates a region where the National Hurricane Center (located in Miami, Florida) believes there is a 10% chance that a tropical system could develop. Although 10% seems rather low (and it is), the simple fact that we are discussing the possibilities of tropical systems in May is not a good sign. People along the coasts should begin preparing for the possibility of a hurricane now, so that when one approaches they already know what to do and can execute a well thought out plan.
The image above (and annotated below via a yellow circle) captures the upper-level low that is currently being monitored for possible tropical development. Even if this low does not develop into a tropical system, very heavy rains can be expected along the Atlantic coasts of southeastern states.
About Patrick
Patrick Marsh is a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Oklahoma's School of Meteorology. He earned a Bachelors of Science in Mathematics and Physics (cum laude) from the University of Arkansas in 2005 and a Masters of Science in Meteorology from the University of Oklahoma in 2007. In addition to working on his doctorate, Patrick serves as the National Severe Storms Laboratory Liaison to the Hazardous Weather Testbed where his research interests lie in working with operational forecasters, data mining, data visualization, and all things high-impact weather. For more about Patrick's work, check out his complete CV!
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