Day 174: The Storms Move South (and East)
The showers and thunderstorms today have pushed south and east from where they’ve been the past few days. Hopefully this will help to cool portions of Oklahoma and remove some of the moisture from the atmosphere so it isn’t as muggy. Well, at least I can hope.
Day 173: Ring of Fire
A very active weather pattern has resulted in repeat rounds of showers and thunderstorms for some across the eastern two-thirds of the US, while others remain locked into a major heat wave. The reason for this is the position of two mid-tropospheric weather “features”: one a ridge and the other a trough.
The ridge (denoted by the blue H) is positioned over the Red River between Oklahoma and Texas. Underneath this ridge, the air is sinking, which causes it to warm and dry (in the mid-levels, not the surface). This results in very hot, dry weather conditions for those stuck underneath. This pattern is often referred to as the “Ring of Fire” because it is very hot in the middle, and “ringed” by showers and thunderstorms. Just look at a national radar mosaic and you’ll see this is the case tonight!
The trough (not denoted) is located across the western United States. This large trough is helping to draw moisture northward into the central United States, which results in a hot, humid mess under the ridge. This large trough also has a series of smaller troughs (denoted by red circles) and jet streaks (yellow fill) moving through it, each bringing a source of lift. Couple this lift with the moisture streaming northward, and a threat of severe weather exists. In all actuality, this is why there has been severe weather almost every day along the periphery of the ridge. This pattern doesn’t look to change anytime soon, so expect the change of severe weather to continue for the next few days.
Lastly, in this kind of pattern, it is extremely difficult for a tropical system to actually make landfall across the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico. This is because the steering flow around the ridge would tend to keep the tropical systems moving westward, and not bring them north into the Gulf of Mexico. An exception to this might be far south Texas, which is on the southern edge of the ridge. This is good news for beach goers and the oil spill relief efforts. However, these kinds of patterns can change quickly, so this doesn’t mean the chance of tropical systems in the Gulf will remain low all season. Coastal residents should make sure they have a hurricane preparedness plan ready to enact should a tropical storm or hurricane threaten.
Day 172: Tropics (Atlantic Ocean) Continuing to Stir
I’m currently having major internet issues, so this post will be short. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently monitoring a tropical wave just west of the Lesser Antilles (south of Haiti) for possible development into the first tropical depression of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. (We’re on the third named storm in the eastern Pacific Ocean.)
Forecast models diverge on what this tropical wave will do. However, there are some models that do develop this wave into a tropical storm and then move it into the Gulf of Mexico next week. This will bear watching, but it is still a ways in the future. A lot can, and will, change between now and then. Should the wave develop into a tropical storm, its name will be “Alex”.
Day 171: Yet Another MCS (or Two)
This is becoming a reoccurring theme of late. Thunderstorms develop in the afternoon across eastern Colorado, eastern Wyoming, northern Kansas, or Nebraska. These thunderstorms then merge into a large complex that persists throughout the overnight hours. These repeat MCS in the same areas are what lead to long term flooding problems. It is only a matter of time, should this continue, before we start hearing about flooding problems across the central United States… Will this be a repeat of 1993? Only time will tell…
Day 170: VORTEX 2 Appendix
As anyone who has read this blog over the last few weeks knows, VORTEX 2 officially ended on 15 June. However, a small contingent of radar trucks have continued to roam the plains in search of tornadoes. The Shared Mobile Atmospheric Research and Teaching Radar (SMART-R) will continue collecting data for the next few days before returning to Norman early next week.
The image above is a screen shot of SASSI (Situational Awareness for Severe Storms Intercept), which was the communications software used during VORTEX 2. The green overlapping circles in the left portion of the image are the radar lobes in which the SMART-R’s were collecting coordinated data. I have annotated where a possible radar indicated tornado was located. As you can see, it appears that good data was collected!
If you happen to have been chasing this storm tonight (the one near Concordia) and have video and/or any other data and are willing to share it, please contact me directly. Thanks!
Day 169: The End of the 2010 HWT EFP
This is the last image, of the last model runs, for the last day of the 2010 Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Experimental Forecast Program (EFP). The image above depicts the models’ forecast reflectivity. In other words, this is what the model (or in the case, 4 different models) are forecasting the radar to look like.
The 2010 HWT EFP was the second of two major projects I was involved in during the last 6 weeks. (VORTEX 2 was the other one.) Below is a brief explanation of what the 2010 HWT EFP was all about this year
The NOAA HWT Spring Experiment is a yearly experiment that investigates the use of convection-allowing model forecasts as guidance for the prediction of severe convective weather. A variety of model output is examined and evaluated daily during the experiment and experimental severe weather forecasts are created and verified. The variety of model output allows us to explore different types of guidance, including products derived from both ensembles and deterministic forecasts.
The 2010 Spring Experiment will be held from May 17th through June 18th in the HWT facility at the National Weather Center in Norman. The Experiment is scheduled to run Monday through Friday from 730am to 4pm. In addition to the traditional focus on severe convection, the 2010 Experiment will also explore use of convection-allowing models to address thunderstorm aviation impacts and for convective heavy rain forecasting. More information about this year’s Experiment can be found below in the 2010 Spring Experiment Operations Plan.
You can check out the 2010 HWT EFP webpage by clicking here. At this link you can check out all the experimental forecasts, look at the experimental model runs, and a whole lot more.
Day 168: Yet Another Iowa MCS
Tonight’s post won’t be long as the title conveys it all…
However, I do want to say that this MCS developed out of what appears to have been a fairly substantial tornado outbreak. My thoughts and prayers are with the residents of the northern plains this night.
About Patrick
Patrick Marsh is a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Oklahoma's School of Meteorology. He earned a Bachelors of Science in Mathematics and Physics (cum laude) from the University of Arkansas in 2005 and a Masters of Science in Meteorology from the University of Oklahoma in 2007. In addition to working on his doctorate, Patrick serves as the National Severe Storms Laboratory Liaison to the Hazardous Weather Testbed where his research interests lie in working with operational forecasters, data mining, data visualization, and all things high-impact weather. For more about Patrick's work, check out his complete CV!
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