Day 241: Cone of Uncertainty: New York City Edition

Posted by on 29 Aug 2010 | 2 comments

Day 241

When viewing National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast graphics, people tend to focus on the specific location of the icons, or the path between the icons. Taking the forecast at face value, the east coast of the United States has nothing to worry about with Hurricane Earl.

Unfortunately, hurricanes are not simply points in the Atlantic Ocean. They are large, spiraling storms that can span several hundred miles. Even if the eye of the hurricane does not pass directly overhead, dangerous weather might be still affect your area. Also, there is considerably uncertainty with hurricane track and intensity forecasts as the forecast time increases. Thus, forecast track errors can exceed 200 miles 4 and 5 days out. Keeping this uncertainty in mind, several major cities along the east coast need to monitor closely for possible impacts from Hurricane Earl. Both New York City and Boston are within the “Cone of Uncertainty“.

  • http://skywatch.org Rob Dale

    I didn’t have time to read all of your blog – so you are saying NYC and Boston are getting a direct hit?

  • http://www.patricktmarsh.com pmarsh

    Exactly. Or at least that is what people will remember if the hurricane stays out to sea. If it does hit New York City or Boston, then people will wonder where the warning was…