Day 271: Tropical Depression #16 (Nicole?)
Yesterday (Monday) was a wild weather day. Los Angeles set their all time record high temperature of 113F; records date back to 1877! Wilmington, North Carolina set their all time record 24 hour precipitation total…(in excess of 10″, but I don’t know the exact value). Also, tropical depression #16 developed south of Cuba.
As indicated in the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) above, tropical depression #16 is forecast to develop into Tropical Storm Nicole during the day tomorrow. Again, the official forecast is above. A series of model forecasts (of track) can be found below.
In any event, tropical storm Nicole (if it develops) won’t last very long. It will be ingested into a broad baroclinic zone associated downstream of a long-wave trough over the eastern United States. In layman’s terms, it will transition from a true tropical cyclone to something more typical of the northern United States — an extratropical cyclone. In any event, deep tropical moisture, broad baroclinic zone, and prolonged resonance time all point toward a heavy rain event in areas that just saw a heavy rain event. Expect widespread flooding to continue.
About Patrick
Patrick Marsh is a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Oklahoma's School of Meteorology. He earned a Bachelors of Science in Mathematics and Physics (cum laude) from the University of Arkansas in 2005 and a Masters of Science in Meteorology from the University of Oklahoma in 2007. In addition to working on his doctorate, Patrick serves as the National Severe Storms Laboratory Liaison to the Hazardous Weather Testbed where his research interests lie in working with operational forecasters, data mining, data visualization, and all things high-impact weather. For more about Patrick's work, check out his complete CV!
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