Day 266: Rain Forecast Verified
Last night’s blog post highlighted the five day precipitation forecast issued by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC). If you didn’t read last night’s post, let’s just say it was covered in “paint” indicating a lot of areas would see rain over the next five days. Well, a large cyclone is currently moving through the northern United States, generating precipitation over a large area. I’d say it appears the HPC forecast will verify quite well!
Day 265: Precipitation on the Way
The five day precipitation forecast from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is shown above. As you can see, the dry pattern over the south and southeast is giving way to an increasingly wet period. Thank goodness…
Day 264: Igor Lives!
Igor lives! The above is the 5-day (120 hours) forecast of Hurricane Igor. Even though Igor has become fully engulfed in a frontal zone, it remains a distinct cyclone. In fact, this afternoon Igor was still producing winds of 80 miles-per-hour!. When was the last time an official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast had a named cyclone at the latitude of Hudson Bay. When was the last time a named cyclone was that close to Hudson Bay!
Day 263: Breaking Down a Ridge
If you’ve lived anywhere in, or traveled to/through, the central United States during the past week, you’ve noticed the unusually warm weather occurring. This has been due to a persistent mid-tropospheric ridge that has been parked over the central United States. Until this ridge breaks down, or moves, the central United States will experience warm, dry conditions.
Well, it appears the ridge is breaking down.
The image above (as well as the one below) are rather busy. However, the above image (this morning) shows the ridge firmly entrenched in the central United States. In the image below (this evening) the ridge has shifted slightly to the east. This is the result of the cold air advection on the west side of the ridge (which isn’t discussed tonight).
Guess we’ll have to see what’s about to happen!
Day 262: Warm Waters of the Atlantic
As Hurricane Igor continues to thrash Bermuda, I thought it would be fitting to mention the sea-surface temperatures of the Atlantic Ocean. Typically, sea-surface temperatures of 28 Celsius are considered necessary for tropical cyclones to develop or maintain itself. As you can see, a large potion of the tropical Atlantic, including the entire Carribean and Gulf of Mexico have sea-surface temperatures above 28 Celsius. As such, the threat of a landfalling hurricane in the United States still persists.
Day 261: Wet South Texas
In the wake of a Hurricane Karl, a large plume of high moisture content air is moving ashore in south Texas. This will result in a lot of heavy rain over the next five days. Brownsville, TX is the site of the first city in the WxChallenge collegiate forecast contest, which begins 27 September. If this moisture sticks around until then, it will be a very difficult first city!
Day 260: Hurricane Igor
Of the three hurricanes mentioned last night, Hurricane Igor is the only hurricane left tonight. Karl made landfall in Mexico around midday and quickly weakened to a tropical depression, and Julia continues to encounter an increase in shear and subsequently weakened to a Tropical Storm.
Since 1991, only three hurricanes have passed within 50 miles of Bermuda, however the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for Hurricane Igor to move over the island of Bermuda during the next few days. Hurricane Warnings have been posted for Bermuda. Although the forecast calls for Igor to be at “major” hurricane status (Category 3 or higher), I believe Igor will most likely be a category 2 at best. I hope for the sake of those in Bermuda, I’m right…
About Patrick
Patrick Marsh is a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Oklahoma's School of Meteorology. He earned a Bachelors of Science in Mathematics and Physics (cum laude) from the University of Arkansas in 2005 and a Masters of Science in Meteorology from the University of Oklahoma in 2007. In addition to working on his doctorate, Patrick serves as the National Severe Storms Laboratory Liaison to the Hazardous Weather Testbed where his research interests lie in working with operational forecasters, data mining, data visualization, and all things high-impact weather. For more about Patrick's work, check out his complete CV!
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