Poor Internet connectivity continues, so once again another short — yet informative — post.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is forecasting a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms across a portion of Minnesota tomorrow. People across the northern plains should review their severe weather preparedness plans and be prepared to enact them tomorrow.
The cold front mentioned last night has pushed south and east into the region that was experiencing the extreme heat wave. This cold front will bring an increased chance of thunderstorms and slightly cooler temperatures to much of the central United States. This slight cool down and increased chance of thunderstorms will be enough to end the Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories that were in effect yesterday.
In the longer term, expect the heat to return early next week as the upper-level ridge once again builds back into the central United States. However, at this time, it doesn’t appear to be as strong. (But that could change…)
First, I just wanted to say that I’ve been having Internet connectivity problems of late which has kept me from doing indepth posts. I hope to have this fixed by early next week. *crosses fingers*
Second, the heat that was promised has continued to develop north and east into parts of Illinois, Indiana, western Kentucky, western Tennessee, and northern Mississippi. In fact, much of Oklahoma and south-central Kansas are under Excessive Heat Warnings. Just to the west of a large area of heat advisories, severe thunderstorm watches have been posted from southwest Kansas northeast to the United States-Canada border north of Wisconsin! Thunderstorms have been trying to develop along the leading edge of a cold front that will hopefully bring slightly cooler, and drier, conditions to portions of the area experiencing this heat wave.
As I mentioned yesterday, the heat is on in the southern plains. The hot temperatures follow on the heels of very heavy rains that have left a lot of surface moisture. When you couple these two, it feels even hotter outside than it actually is. Today, the maximum “heat index”, a measure of how hot it feels outside, (above; courtesy of the Oklahoma Mesonet) was well over 100 degrees Fahrenheit over most of Oklahoma – and was well over 110 degrees Fahrenheit in central Oklahoma. If you are interested in a heat index calculator, click here!
The heat, and more importantly, high heat index values, will continue across the southern plains for the foreseeable future. Please drink lots of water, avoid unnecessary outdoor activities (or at least do them early in the day or put them off until evening), and stay cool!
Tonight’s images come from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and are forecasts for the next 6-10 days (above) and 8-14 days (below). These are forecasts of temperature relative to normal. As I mentioned in the last few days, the ridge in the east that was responsible for the extremely hot temperatures along the east coast last week is now redeveloping over the central United States. As such, expect above normal temperatures in the near term.
In meteorology, everything is interconnected. Many of the hurricanes that develop in the Atlantic Basin originate as thunderstorm complexes over Africa. The atmosphere also operates in a delicate balance. When things tip out of balance, intense storm complexes and flooding can develop or intense drought can occur.
The image above depicts the amount of fine particulates in the atmosphere. (Warmer colors indicate more particulates.) The large swatch of reds across most of the northern Atlantic Ocean is the result of Saharan dust being blown westward over the Atlantic Ocean. This dust tends to act destructively across the tropics inhibiting tropical development. Thus, with such a large area of dusty air across the Atlantic, it should be no surprise that tropical development in the Atlantic Basin is not expected in the next 48 hours.
Lastly, you might be wondering what the reds are in the northern Gulf of Mexico. This is smoke and haze from the burning of leaking oil from the Deepwater Horizon accident.
I’ve been working on a project with a deadline coming up so I haven’t been able to devote as much time to the nightly blog as I would have liked. Tonight is no exception…
The heavy rain (and cooler temperatures) that have been centered over the southern plains the past week will be shifting to the east. People in the east should expect a cooler and wetter pattern the next several days. This can be attributed to the large high pressure that was centered over this region last week redeveloping over the south-central United States. This will bring a return to hot and humid conditions in places that were wet last week and wet conditions to places that were hot and dry last week.
