Ramblings of a Graduate Student

This evening a small thunderstorm developed over Norman, OK and went on to produce a small downburst/microburst over parts of the city. This thunderstorm was very small and (for the most part) missed the observation network located at the Norman airport. As such, much of the eastern half of the city received a soaking rain whereas the official report from Norman was much less. The National Weather Service’s reporting station is very near the Oklahoma Climate Survey’s Mesonet station, so the mesonet station is a good first guess as to what the official report was. As you can see, the mesonet site recorded 0.01″ of rain, which is much less than what I observed personally. It’s amazing what a small change in position can mean when it comes to measuring precipitation.

Over the last week or so, much of Oklahoma received a decent amount of rain (at least for August). The graphic above depicts a rough estimate of rainfall over the western half of the state. Notice the big hole in appreciable rainfall over central Oklahoma (Chickasha to Oklahoma City)? My front yard notices it…

Rain prospects over the next 10 days or so certainly don’t look all that great. It’s next to impossible to rule out an isolated thunderstorm, especially with a front nearby, but rain chances will remain very low for the foreseeable future.

I’ve been working on a project with a deadline coming up so I haven’t been able to devote as much time to the nightly blog as I would have liked. Tonight is no exception…

The heavy rain (and cooler temperatures) that have been centered over the southern plains the past week will be shifting to the east. People in the east should expect a cooler and wetter pattern the next several days. This can be attributed to the large high pressure that was centered over this region last week redeveloping over the south-central United States. This will bring a return to hot and humid conditions in places that were wet last week and wet conditions to places that were hot and dry last week.

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center’s (HPC) 5-day forecast once again calls for a lot of rain over a very large area. This is very similar to the past week. A tropical system will move from the Caribbean Sean northwestward into the central United States and interact with a very slow moving cold front. Expect a lot of rain with very heavy rain rates. However, the threat for widespread severe weather should be minimal.

With all the heavy rain that fell over Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, and Oklahoma this last week, the watershed is handling a large amount of water already. This water is currently flowing downstream toward the Gulf of Mexico. With the additional rainfall forecast to fall over a watershed that is currently transporting last week’s rain, caution should be used on all rivers from the central plains down toward the coast.

Mother Nature has been providing the fireworks across a large portion of the southern plains today as several clusters of thunderstorms have traversed the area. The most intense convection is currently located across eastern Colorado in association with a potent upper-level shortwave trough (annotated by the purple height contours). Also, across far northern Mexico, the remnants of Hurricane Alex continue to stream moisture northeastward in advance of the trough. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible across most of the central United States for the next few days.

As advertised the last few days, the rich tropical moisture associated with Alex is working its way northward into the central United States. This moisture is interacting with broad, large-scale ascent to produce heavy rain in the central United States. Several areas across Oklahoma received over 1″ of rain today; most of Norman’s rain fell in a 1-2 hour period shortly before lunchtime.

This pattern will continue over the next several days. The rain will help keep temperatures down, but might cause trouble for planned firework displays!

Those who know me understand that I am an avid baseball fan.  In fact, when I am not in the midst of preparing for multiple experiments, you can often find me at L. Dale Mitchell watching Park watching the Oklahoma Sooners’ baseball team.

Tonight my favorite professional baseball team, the Atlanta Braves, was on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball playing in New York City against the Mets.  My wife and I planned our weekend around watching the game together since tonight is my last weekend night at home for the next two months.  Unfortunately for us, the game entered a rain delay in the 6th inning.  The radar image above doesn’t bode well for this game being completed any time soon.

Such are the breaks…