Ramblings of a Graduate Student

I haven’t been feeling well of late; I’m battling a head-cold, sinus infection, ear infection, or something along these lines. As such, I haven’t had much energy to develop an indepth blog post. Tonight is no exception. Above is he accumulated rainfall for Oklahoma on 8 September 2010 (as of 10:20 PM). Note the 5″ totals in central Oklahoma. Here at my house (south Norman) we’ve received probably between 3.5 and 4″.

This should clear out just in time to allow heating to return Friday and Saturday. This will make the OU-Florida State football game hot and muggy! Good thing I plan to watch from home!

The remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine, the giant comma-shape on the image above, are slowly moving northward, through Texas. This is very heavy rain, and flash flood warnings are widespread throughout Texas. This rain will move into Oklahoma tomorrow, so please be careful while driving across the state. Most likely, there will be areas where roadways do become flooded. Remember, turn around, don’t drown.

Late last evening, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) declared that a cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the far southwestern Gulf of Mexico had become organized enough to have the title “Tropical Depression”. Then, overnight, it became Tropical Storm Hermine. The graphic above depicts the forecast track of Hermine.

Associated with the tropical storm will be copious amounts of tropical moisture. As this moisture streams northward, along with Hermine, it will interact with a weak frontal zone. This interaction will allow for enhanced rainfall across portions of Oklahoma. Take a look at the forecast 5-day rain fall amounts from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC).

From a this meteorologist’s point of view, Earl is a thing of beauty. Part of me wishes I could be on shores of North Carolina tonight. However, I know enough about the power of Mother Nature to stay away…

Nothing fancy tonight, just a satellite (water vapor) image of a classic hurricane.

Earl is too close to landfall; I don’t want to provide potentially conflicting information from what is being disseminated via official channels. For my thoughts and details of things to look for in the next couple of hours, please see previous blog posts.

Many people are focused on Major Hurricane Earl tonight, wondering what the eventual path will be. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to keep Earl just off the east coast of the United States. However, because of the large size of Earl’s wind field, a hurricane watch has been issued for portions of North Carolina. Even if the eye does not make landfall, it should be close enough that portions of North Carolina will experience some wind and rain.

The eventual path of Earth will be dictated by events that are currently well removed from the hurricane. A strong short-wave trough at 500 mb is forecast to race across the northern plains over the next few days. The southeast shear downstream of the trough axis is forecast to help “steer” Earl to the north and northeast. The speed at which the short-wave trough moves across the northern United States will be impacted by the strength of the ridge over the eastern United States (center denoted by a “N” below).

Rotating around the periphery of the east coast ridge are several mid- or upper-level lows (denoted by small letter “x”). Currently, these upper-level lows are resulting in strong shear (by hurricane standards) across the top of Earl. As these upper-level lows continue to move westward, away from Earl, the shear should decrease allowing for possible strengthening. Might these upper-level lows aid the destruction process of the ridge?

I still don’t think it is wise to rule out a potential North Carolina landfall. Even if Earl does not make direct landfall, it will be close enough to cause significant societal impacts. A second area where landfall is possible is in New England, as hurricane Earl races ahead of the vigorous 500mb short-wave trough.

Hurricane Earl has intensified to a category 4 hurricane today, passing within 100 miles of San Juan, Puerto Rico. As you can see from the radar images, Earl is extremely well organized.

I know the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast (as of this writing) calls for Earl to miss the east coast of the United States, I have seen enough stuff today to leave me with serious concerns with this forecast. All interested on the east coast, from South Carolina to Maine, should monitor Earl’s progress extremely closely. It is far from certain that Earl will not make landfall along the east coast…